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공개 예측시장 데이터를 한국어로 수집·번역·기록하는 독립 데이터 서비스입니다.

전체 시장데이터 방법론문의·기능 제안개인정보처리방침서비스 안내거래·베팅 기능 없음
© 2026 PolyView · 표시된 확률은 원본 시장 가격을 정리한 참고 정보입니다. Polymarket와 제휴하거나 공식적으로 연관된 서비스가 아닙니다.
홈탐색변동안내
전체 시장
AI진행 중원문

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

선택한 항목↓$600B11%
↓$600B11%— 오늘
1일1주1개월전체
1시간—
24시간—
1주-0.5%p
누적 거래량5.5만 달러

시장 핵심 정보

현재 공개 데이터에서 계산
현재 선두↑$1.0T85%
선두 격차33.0%p↑$1.25T 대비
선택 항목 순위9위↓$600B · 11%
상위 3개 합계169%표시된 시장 가격 단순 합계

위 수치는 원본 시장 가격을 정리한 정보이며 PolyView의 예측이나 의견이 아닙니다.

시장 설명과 판정 기준

원문의 의미와 예외 조건을 확인하세요
마감1월 1일
상태진행 중
선택 항목↓$600B

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

원문과 공개 자료

사용자가 직접 확인할 수 있는 출처
Polymarket 원본 시장 데이터Gamma API · 시장 ID 2299995
fe.secondmarket.comfe.secondmarket.com
데이터 내려받기현재 시장과 확률 이력
JSONCSV
이 시장의 번역·데이터 오류 신고 →

선택지별 확률

↑$1.0T+1.0%p85%↑$1.25T-4.5%p52%↑$1.5T—33%↑$1.75T+1.0%p25%↓$750B—21%↓$800B-5.5%p21%↓$700B—18%↑$2.0T-1.5%p14%↓$600B—11%↑$2.5T—8%↓$500B—7%↑$3.0T—6%↑$4.0T—3%↑$5.0T-0.1%p2%

확률 정보만 제공하며 거래는 지원하지 않습니다.

시장 정보

24시간 거래량
52달러
유동성
2만 달러
마감
1월 1일 · D-121
업데이트 2026. 9. 2. PM 10:08:33

데이터 기록

원본 시장 ID
2299995
이벤트 ID
500775
원본 갱신
2026. 9. 2. PM 10:08:33
언어
원문 표시
수집·번역 방법론 →번역·데이터 오류 신고 →