{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T19:46:59.081Z","range":"max","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"1194695","eventId":"166793","eventTitle":"2026년에 러시아가 다른 국가를 침공할 것인가?","optionLabel":null,"slug":"will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-OCAAnJhYXFy5.jpg","title":"러시아가 2026년에 다른 국가를 침공할까?","originalTitle":"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","description":"이 시장은 러시아가 2026년 12월 31일 오후 11시 59분(동부 표준시)까지 우크라이나를 제외한 어떤 UN 회원국 영토의 일부라도 통제하기 위한 군사 공격을 개시하면 \"Yes\"로 결정됩니다. 그렇지 않으면 \"No\"로 결정됩니다.\n\n이 시장의 목적상, 시장 생성 시점에 어떤 UN 회원국이 사실상 통제하는 토지는 해당 국가의 주권 영토로 간주됩니다.\n\n이 시장의 결정 출처는 신뢰할 수 있는 보도의 합의입니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","category":"world","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.075,"noProbability":0.925,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":null,"change1m":-0.01,"volume":434110.5644620001,"volume24h":3809.209676,"liquidity":51251.4469,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"59573580306448637210106211846184223086456880319167309095381061981348540313643","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:54:34.433938Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-01-20T00:00:25.000Z","probability":0.095},{"timestamp":"2026-01-21T00:00:27.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-01-22T00:00:41.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-01-23T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-01-24T00:00:42.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-01-25T00:00:47.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-01-26T00:00:47.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-01-27T00:00:40.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-01-28T00:00:29.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-01-29T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-01-30T00:00:34.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-01-31T00:00:34.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-01T00:00:41.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-02-02T00:00:33.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-03T00:00:37.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-04T00:00:46.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-05T00:00:31.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-06T00:00:40.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-07T00:00:49.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-08T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-02-09T00:00:42.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-02-10T00:00:46.000Z","probability":0.095},{"timestamp":"2026-02-11T00:00:54.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-02-12T00:00:54.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-02-13T00:00:45.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-02-14T00:00:50.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-02-15T00:00:52.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-17T00:00:54.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-02-18T00:00:59.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-02-20T00:00:55.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-02-21T00:00:36.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-22T00:00:37.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-23T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-24T00:00:45.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-02-25T00:00:51.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-02-26T00:00:45.000Z","probability":0.105},{"timestamp":"2026-02-27T00:00:51.000Z","probability":0.105},{"timestamp":"2026-02-28T00:00:49.000Z","probability":0.105},{"timestamp":"2026-03-03T00:00:55.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-03-04T00:00:56.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-03-05T00:00:53.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-03-06T00:00:51.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-07T00:00:55.000Z","probability":0.16},{"timestamp":"2026-03-08T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-09T00:00:41.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-10T00:00:50.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-11T00:00:53.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-03-12T00:00:55.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-03-14T00:00:44.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-03-15T00:00:46.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-16T00:00:57.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-17T00:00:37.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-18T00:00:39.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-19T00:00:50.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-20T00:00:43.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-03-21T00:00:41.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-22T00:00:39.000Z","probability":0.15},{"timestamp":"2026-03-23T00:00:33.000Z","probability":0.15},{"timestamp":"2026-03-24T00:00:29.000Z","probability":0.15},{"timestamp":"2026-03-25T00:00:43.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-26T00:00:47.000Z","probability":0.155},{"timestamp":"2026-03-27T00:00:40.000Z","probability":0.14},{"timestamp":"2026-03-28T00:00:42.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-03-29T00:00:47.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-03-31T00:00:56.000Z","probability":0.14},{"timestamp":"2026-04-02T00:00:56.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-04-09T00:00:22.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-04-18T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-04-22T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-04-23T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.13},{"timestamp":"2026-04-24T00:00:31.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-04-25T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.105},{"timestamp":"2026-04-26T00:00:09.000Z","probability":0.12},{"timestamp":"2026-04-27T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-04-28T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.11},{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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Politics","Armenia","Military Actions","Geopolitics","putin","Russia","NATO"],"status":"open","probability":0.075,"noProbability":0.925,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":null,"change1m":-0.01,"volume":434110.5644620001,"volume24h":3809.209676,"liquidity":50797.7397,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"59573580306448637210106211846184223086456880319167309095381061981348540313643","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:56:38.196301Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[]}}