{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T19:45:01.386Z","range":"1w","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2749367","eventId":"25413","eventTitle":"2026년 12월 31일까지 러시아가 NATO 회원국을 침공할 것인가?","optionLabel":"2026년 12월 31일","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-december-31-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","title":"러시아가 2026년 12월 31일까지 NATO 회원국을 침공할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?","description":"이 시장은 러시아가 2026년 12월 31일 오후 11시 59분(동부 표준시)까지 NATO 회원국 영토의 일부에 대한 통제권을 확립하려는 군사 공격을 개시할 경우 \"Yes\"로 해결됩니다. 그렇지 않으면 \"No\"로 해결됩니다.\n\n이 시장의 목적상, 2025년 5월 28일 기준으로 NATO 회원국 또는 러시아가 사실상 통제하는 토지는 해당 국가의 주권 영토로 간주됩니다.\n\n미표지 인원이 수행하는 하이브리드 또는 \"회색 지대\" 작전은 러시아 요원으로 확인되고 크림반도(2014년) 또는 도네츠크·루한스크 지역(2014–2022년)에서 발생한 것처럼 영토에 대한 사실상 통제권을 확립하려는 의도가 있는 경우 해당됩니다.\n\n이 시장의 해결 출처는 신뢰할 수 있는 출처들의 합의입니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","category":"world","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.065,"noProbability":0.935,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":0.01,"change1m":null,"volume":315812.3374569999,"volume24h":3780.807516,"liquidity":69838.9518,"endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"23530003628454702082168799022501270830098851824883932803252713402311376262723","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:00:35.818182Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T19:00:18.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T20:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T21:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T22:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T23:00:18.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T01:00:17.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T02:00:27.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T03:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T04:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T05:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T06:00:16.000Z","probability":0.055},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T07:00:34.000Z","probability":0.055},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T08:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T09:00:17.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T10:00:12.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T11:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T12:00:35.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T13:00:15.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T14:00:16.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T15:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T16:00:32.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T17:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T18:00:17.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T19:00:18.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T20:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T21:00:14.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T22:00:15.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T23:00:20.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T01:00:28.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T02:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T03:00:12.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T04:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T05:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T06:00:30.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T07:00:17.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T08:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T09:00:32.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T10:00:12.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T11:00:14.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T12:00:19.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T13:00:17.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T14:00:11.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T15:00:13.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T16:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T17:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T18:00:19.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T19:00:16.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T20:00:15.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T21:00:31.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T22:00:15.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T23:00:15.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T01:00:16.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T02:00:14.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T03:00:16.000Z","probability":0.07},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T04:00:16.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T05:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T06:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T07:00:18.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T08:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T09:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T10:00:33.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T11:00:14.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T12:00:20.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T13:00:15.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T14:00:14.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T15:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T16:00:14.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T17:00:21.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T18:00:17.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T19:00:18.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T20:00:27.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T21:00:20.000Z","prob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12월 31일까지 러시아가 NATO 회원국을 침공할 것인가?","optionLabel":"2026년 12월 31일","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-december-31-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","title":"2026년 12월 31일까지 러시아가 NATO 회원국을 침공할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","category":"politics","tags":["Politics","World","Ukraine","Geopolitics","Poland","NATO"],"status":"open","probability":0.065,"noProbability":0.935,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":0.01,"change1m":null,"volume":315812.3374569999,"volume24h":3780.807516,"liquidity":67028.7264,"endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"23530003628454702082168799022501270830098851824883932803252713402311376262723","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:02:34.567395Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[]}}