{"exportedAt":"2026-09-03T01:42:40.135Z","range":"1d","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"3860599","eventId":"906699","eventTitle":"러시아가 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가...?","optionLabel":"10월 31일","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-october-31-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","title":"러시아, 2026년 10월 31일까지 새로운 강제 동원 발표할까?","originalTitle":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?","description":"이 시장은 지정된 날짜인 2026년 10월 31일 오후 11시 59분(동부 표준시)까지 러시아가 다음 중 하나를 공식적으로 발표할 경우 \"예\"로 판정됩니다:\n\n(i) 2022년 9월 동원 체계 하에서 새로운 의무적 군사 동원을 발표하거나, 해당 체계가 적용되는 시민 범주를 확대하는 경우; 또는\n(ii) 2022년 9월 동원 체계 외부에서 새로운 의무적 군사 동원을 수립하거나 승인하는 경우.\n\n그렇지 않으면 이 시장은 \"아니오\"로 판정됩니다.\n\n적격 발표는 러시아 국가의 새로운 정책으로서 그러한 동원을 전달해야 합니다. 적격 동원을 수립하거나 승인하거나, 동원의 대상이 되는 시민 범주를 확대하는 공식 법적 행위(예: 행정 명령)는 발표로 인정됩니다. 새로운 정책으로 규정되지 않은 일상적인 군사 작전이나, 공식 행위나 발표로 입증되지 않는 조치는 인정되지 않습니다.\n\n적격 조치에는 다음이 포함되지만 이에 국한되지 않습니다:\n새로운 동원 물결이나 단계의 발표;\n의무 동원 대상이 되는 시민 범주 또는 연령대의 확대 발표;\n승인 이전에 의무 동원 대상이 아니었던 시민들에 대한 의무 동원 징집 승인 발표; 또는\n특정 수의 새로운 징집을 의무화하는 것.\n\n다음 사항은 인정되지 않습니다: 일반적인 징병 명령; 전자 소환장 또는 징병 등록 조치; 군대의 승인된 규모 확대; 일상적인 징병 행정; 계약 모집 조치; 또는 새로운 재정적 모집 인센티브.\n\n연방 법률 제53-FZ호 \"군사 의무 및 군사 복무에 관하여\" 제54조에 따른 법정 기간 한도 내에서 실시되는 예비군 훈련 집회와, 동원 인적 예비군에 자발적으로 계약한 시민으로 제한된 특별 집회는 인정되지 않습니다. 그러나 새로운 법적 행위를 통해 수립되거나 기존 법적 체계 하에서 수립된 예비군 관련 조치는, 러시아 국가가 공식적으로 발표하거나 공식 법적 행위로 수립되고 다음 기준 중 하나를 충족하는 경우 인정됩니다:\n의무적으로 징집된 예비군 시민의 \"특별 군사 작전\" 지역 배치 또는 전투 편대 배치를 승인하거나 요구하는 경우;\n해당 시민에게 그렇지 않으면 적용될 법정 기간 한도를 초과하여 징집된 시민의 의무적 유지를 허용하는 경우;\n동원 인적 예비군에 자발적으로 계약하지 않은 비활동 예비군(zapas) 시민에게 특별 집회 유형의 의무 복무 또는 이와 유사한 의무 복무 의무를 연장하는 경우;\n예비군 시민을 위한 추가적인 새로운 의무 군사 복무 범주를 수립하는 경우.\n\n주요 판정 출처는 러시아 국가가 발표하거나 발행한 공식 법적 행위 및 공식 발표입니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.185,"noProbability":0.815,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.025,"change1w":-0.02,"change1m":null,"volume":36287.653126000005,"volume24h":1536.230071,"liquidity":17147.2048,"endDate":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"14016923262811062666370202829200470712684396368944151899802277379348874873066","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T01:38:36.178759Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:45:26.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:00:14.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:15:22.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:30:12.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:45:11.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:00:12.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:15:07.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:30:12.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:45:08.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:00:25.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:15:07.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:30:24.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:45:11.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:00:13.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:15:12.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:30:08.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:45:11.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.21},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:15:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:30:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:45:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:00:11.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:15:09.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:30:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:45:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:00:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:15:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:30:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:45:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:15:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:30:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:45:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:00:09.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:15:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:30:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:45:08.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:00:28.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:15:12.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:30:11.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:45:13.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:00:28.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:15:09.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:30:12.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:45:12.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:00:14.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:15:09.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:30:09.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:45:13.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:00:12.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:15:13.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:30:12.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:45:08.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:00:27.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:15:09.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:30:12.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:45:12.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:00:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:15:08.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:30:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:45:08.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:00:12.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:15:09.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:30:12.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:45:12.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:15:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:30:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:45:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:00:13.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:15:25.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:30:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:45:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T20:00:12.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T20:15:13.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T20:30:14.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T20:45:13.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T21:00:14.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T21:15:14.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T21:30:13.000Z","probability":0.18},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T21:45:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T22:00:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T22:15:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T22:30:25.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T22:45:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T23:00:14.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T23:15:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T23:30:24.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T23:45:14.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T00:15:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T00:30:14.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T00:45:10.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T01:00:13.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T01:15:10.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T01:30:09.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-09-03T01:42:09.000Z","probability":0.185}],"analysis":null,"news":[],"eventMarkets":[{"id":"3860598","eventId":"906699","eventTitle":"러시아가 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가...?","optionLabel":"9월 30일","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-september-30-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","title":"러시아가 2026년 9월 30일까지 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","category":"politics","tags":["putin","Russia","Ukraine","Military","zelenskyy","Geopolitics","Mobilization"],"status":"open","probability":0.055,"noProbability":0.945,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.01,"change1w":-0.035,"change1m":null,"volume":64269.46490000002,"volume24h":6841.895745,"liquidity":20562.288,"endDate":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"65652519334685648598019352081870097254902147226552798670373539371868569926978","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T01:40:36.216595Z","translated":true},{"id":"3860599","eventId":"906699","eventTitle":"러시아가 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가...?","optionLabel":"10월 31일","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-october-31-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","title":"러시아가 2026년 10월 31일까지 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","category":"politics","tags":["putin","Russia","Ukraine","Military","zelenskyy","Geopolitics","Mobilization"],"status":"open","probability":0.185,"noProbability":0.815,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.025,"change1w":-0.015,"change1m":null,"volume":36287.653126000005,"volume24h":1536.230071,"liquidity":16911.779,"endDate":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"14016923262811062666370202829200470712684396368944151899802277379348874873066","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T01:40:36.216595Z","translated":true},{"id":"3860600","eventId":"906699","eventTitle":"러시아가 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가...?","optionLabel":"12월 31일","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-december-31-2026","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","title":"러시아가 2026년 12월 31일까지 새로운 강제 동원령을 발표할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","category":"politics","tags":["putin","Russia","Ukraine","Military","zelenskyy","Geopolitics","Mobilization"],"status":"open","probability":0.31,"noProbability":0.69,"change1h":0.005,"change24h":0.015,"change1w":0.005,"change1m":null,"volume":56992.096024,"volume24h":1717.7539009999998,"liquidity":34911.8674,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"40943010093580294320673025228399657021545102925574438553378883309797655202277","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T01:40:36.216595Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[{"marketId":"3860600","label":"12월 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