{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T18:25:29.391Z","range":"max","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.23,"noProbability":0.77,"change1h":-0.005,"change24h":0.015,"change1w":-0.025,"change1m":-0.245,"volume":1584883.7978840002,"volume24h":20484.862401000006,"liquidity":44114.8138,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T17:46:34.376126Z","translated":false,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-07-01T00:00:03.000Z","probability":0.505},{"timestamp":"2026-07-02T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.14},{"timestamp":"2026-07-03T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-07-04T00:00:03.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-07-05T00:00:03.000Z","probability":0.14},{"timestamp":"2026-07-06T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.415},{"timestamp":"2026-07-07T00:00:08.000Z","probability":0.47},{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.31},{"timestamp":"2026-07-09T00:00:08.000Z","probability":0.29},{"timestamp":"2026-07-10T00:00:05.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-07-11T00:00:06.000Z","probability":0.185},{"timestamp":"2026-07-12T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-07-13T00:00:06.000Z","probability":0.26},{"timestamp":"2026-07-14T00:00:05.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-07-15T00:00:05.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-07-16T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.25},{"timestamp":"2026-07-17T00:00:06.000Z","probability":0.24},{"timestamp":"2026-07-18T00:00:04.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-07-19T00:00:05.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-07-20T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.125},{"timestamp":"2026-07-21T00:00:06.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-07-22T00:00:05.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-07-23T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.145},{"timestamp":"2026-07-24T00:00:10.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-07-25T00:00:10.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-07-26T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-07-27T00:00:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-07-28T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-07-29T00:00:36.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-07-30T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.165},{"timestamp":"2026-07-31T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.835},{"timestamp":"2026-08-01T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.645},{"timestamp":"2026-08-02T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.615},{"timestamp":"2026-08-03T00:00:10.000Z","probability":0.635},{"timestamp":"2026-08-04T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.54},{"timestamp":"2026-08-05T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.615},{"timestamp":"2026-08-06T00:00:09.000Z","probability":0.545},{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.465},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T00:00:14.000Z","probability":0.45},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.455},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.45},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.445},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.41},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.36},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.385},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T00:00:27.000Z","probability":0.315},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.305},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.29},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T00:00:28.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.235},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:46:09.000Z","probability":0.23}],"analysis":null,"news":[],"eventMarkets":[{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"politics","tags":["Gaza","Geopolitics","Politics","Global","Foreign Policy","Israel"],"status":"open","probability":0.23,"noProbability":0.77,"change1h":-0.005,"change24h":0.015,"change1w":-0.025,"change1m":-0.245,"volume":1584883.7978840002,"volume24h":20484.862401000006,"liquidity":44114.8138,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T17:46:34.376126Z","translated":false}],"eventHistory":[]}}