{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T18:26:57.027Z","range":"1w","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.23,"noProbability":0.77,"change1h":-0.005,"change24h":0.015,"change1w":-0.025,"change1m":-0.315,"volume":1584883.7978840002,"volume24h":20434.862401000006,"liquidity":44302.5058,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:20:34.22042Z","translated":false,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T19:00:16.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T20:00:14.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T21:00:14.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T22:00:14.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T23:00:17.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T01:00:15.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T02:00:26.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T03:00:13.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T04:00:15.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T05:00:13.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T06:00:14.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T07:00:31.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T08:00:13.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T09:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T10:00:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T11:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T12:00:32.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T13:00:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T14:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T15:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T16:00:30.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T17:00:14.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T19:00:16.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T20:00:14.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T21:00:12.000Z","probability":0.19},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T22:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T23:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T01:00:26.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T02:00:13.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T03:00:10.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T04:00:14.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T05:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T06:00:28.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T07:00:14.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T08:00:13.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T09:00:29.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T10:00:10.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T11:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T13:00:14.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T14:00:10.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T15:00:10.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T16:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T17:00:13.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T19:00:14.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T20:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T21:00:29.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T22:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T23:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T01:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T02:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T03:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T04:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T05:00:16.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T07:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T08:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T09:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T10:00:32.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T11:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T13:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T14:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T15:00:14.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T16:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T17:00:16.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T19:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T20:00:26.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T21:00:17.000Z","probabi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Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"politics","tags":["Gaza","Geopolitics","Politics","Global","Foreign Policy","Israel"],"status":"open","probability":0.23,"noProbability":0.77,"change1h":-0.005,"change24h":0.015,"change1w":-0.025,"change1m":-0.315,"volume":1584883.7978840002,"volume24h":20434.862401000006,"liquidity":43248.2418,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T18:24:36.559093Z","translated":false}],"eventHistory":[]}}