{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T15:16:22.194Z","range":"1m","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.225,"noProbability":0.775,"change1h":null,"change24h":0.005,"change1w":-0.03,"change1m":-0.31,"volume":1584328.4778840002,"volume24h":20147.772401,"liquidity":40493.5666,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T14:54:32.334145Z","translated":false,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-08-02T18:00:10.000Z","probability":0.635},{"timestamp":"2026-08-03T00:00:10.000Z","probability":0.635},{"timestamp":"2026-08-03T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.605},{"timestamp":"2026-08-03T12:00:09.000Z","probability":0.62},{"timestamp":"2026-08-03T18:00:08.000Z","probability":0.535},{"timestamp":"2026-08-04T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.54},{"timestamp":"2026-08-04T06:00:26.000Z","probability":0.505},{"timestamp":"2026-08-04T12:00:08.000Z","probability":0.52},{"timestamp":"2026-08-04T18:00:08.000Z","probability":0.6},{"timestamp":"2026-08-05T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.615},{"timestamp":"2026-08-05T06:00:20.000Z","probability":0.62},{"timestamp":"2026-08-05T12:00:11.000Z","probability":0.625},{"timestamp":"2026-08-05T18:00:23.000Z","probability":0.59},{"timestamp":"2026-08-06T00:00:09.000Z","probability":0.545},{"timestamp":"2026-08-06T06:00:08.000Z","probability":0.565},{"timestamp":"2026-08-06T12:00:14.000Z","probability":0.56},{"timestamp":"2026-08-06T18:00:08.000Z","probability":0.555},{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T00:00:11.000Z","probability":0.465},{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T06:00:08.000Z","probability":0.495},{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T12:00:13.000Z","probability":0.5},{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T18:00:11.000Z","probability":0.455},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T00:00:14.000Z","probability":0.45},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T06:00:10.000Z","probability":0.455},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T12:00:37.000Z","probability":0.45},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.515},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.455},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T06:00:19.000Z","probability":0.555},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T12:00:12.000Z","probability":0.4},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T18:00:22.000Z","probability":0.475},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.45},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T06:00:08.000Z","probability":0.465},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T12:00:10.000Z","probability":0.43},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T18:00:10.000Z","probability":0.435},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.445},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.415},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T12:00:09.000Z","probability":0.41},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T18:00:10.000Z","probability":0.415},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.41},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T06:00:09.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T12:00:16.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T12:00:16.000Z","probability":0.385},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T18:00:20.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.385},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T12:00:19.000Z","probability":0.365},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.365},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.36},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.36},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.36},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T18:00:12.000Z","probability":0.365},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.4},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T12:00:16.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.395},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.385},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.385},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T12:00:16.000Z","probability":0.425},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.335},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T00:00:27.000Z","probability":0.315},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.285},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T06:00:17.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T06:00:18.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T12:00:14.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T18:00:20.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.305},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T06:00:14.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T18:00:11.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T06:00:16.000Z","probability":0.285},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T00:00:15.000Z","probability":0.29},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T06:00:14.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.295},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.28},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.28},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T06:00:19.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.265},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.275},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T06:00:16.000Z","probability":0.27},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T06:00:14.000Z","probability":0.255},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T12:00:32.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T06:00:28.000Z","probability":0.195},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.2},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T00:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T06:00:11.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T12:00:17.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T00:00:28.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T06:00:16.000Z","probability":0.205},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T12:00:18.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.235},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:00:34.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:56:13.000Z","probability":0.225}],"analysis":null,"news":[],"eventMarkets":[{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"politics","tags":["Gaza","Geopolitics","Politics","Global","Foreign Policy","Israel"],"status":"open","probability":0.225,"noProbability":0.775,"change1h":null,"change24h":0.005,"change1w":-0.03,"change1m":-0.31,"volume":1584328.4778840002,"volume24h":20147.772401,"liquidity":40211.8674,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T14:56:34.081693Z","translated":false}],"eventHistory":[]}}