{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T15:50:41.026Z","range":"1d","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2747434","eventId":"34889","eventTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.225,"noProbability":0.775,"change1h":null,"change24h":0.005,"change1w":-0.03,"change1m":-0.31,"volume":1584328.4778840002,"volume24h":20147.772401,"liquidity":40493.5666,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T14:54:32.334145Z","translated":false,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T15:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T15:15:10.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T15:30:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T15:45:09.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T16:00:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T16:15:09.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T16:30:28.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T16:45:12.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T17:00:30.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T17:15:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T17:30:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T17:45:12.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T18:00:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T18:15:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T18:30:12.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T18:45:10.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T19:00:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T19:15:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T19:30:46.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T19:45:12.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T20:00:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T20:15:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T20:30:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T20:45:26.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T21:00:15.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T21:15:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T21:30:15.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T21:45:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:00:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:15:14.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:30:13.000Z","probability":0.215},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T23:45:12.000Z","probability":0.235},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.235},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:15:09.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:30:12.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:45:12.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:00:13.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:15:08.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:30:12.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:45:27.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:00:15.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:15:23.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:30:13.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:45:11.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:00:13.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:15:08.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:30:13.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:45:09.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:00:26.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:15:08.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:30:25.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:45:12.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:00:14.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:15:13.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:30:09.000Z","probability":0.245},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:45:12.000Z","probability":0.24},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:15:09.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:30:13.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:45:08.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:00:12.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:15:10.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:30:09.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:45:12.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:00:09.000Z","probability":0.23},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:15:12.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:30:14.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:45:09.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:00:17.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:15:09.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:30:14.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:45:12.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:00:12.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:15:09.000Z","probability":0.225},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:30:14.000Z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Hamas agree to disarm by...?","optionLabel":"December 31, 2026","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","originalTitle":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","category":"politics","tags":["Gaza","Geopolitics","Politics","Global","Foreign Policy","Israel"],"status":"open","probability":0.225,"noProbability":0.775,"change1h":null,"change24h":0.005,"change1w":-0.03,"change1m":-0.31,"volume":1584328.4778840002,"volume24h":20147.772401,"liquidity":40211.8674,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T14:56:34.081693Z","translated":false}],"eventHistory":[]}}