{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T21:37:58.735Z","range":"1d","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"2873443","eventId":"333737","eventTitle":"12월 31일까지 중국 기업이 상위 ___ AI 모델을 보유하게 될까?","optionLabel":"#3","slug":"will-a-chinese-company-have-one-of-the-top-3-ai-models-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","title":"2026년 12월 31일까지 중국 기업이 상위 3위 AI 모델 중 하나를 보유하게 될까?","originalTitle":"Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?","description":"이 시장은 2026년 12월 31일 오후 11시 59분(동부 표준시)까지 시장 생성 시점부터 해당 기간 내 어느 시점에서든 Chatbot Arena LLM 리더보드(https://arena.ai/)의 '리더보드' 탭 아래 표를 확인했을 때, 중국 기업이 소유한 모델이 상위 3위 안에 랭크되면 '예'로 해결됩니다.\n\n해결에는 https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control의 '텍스트 아레나 | 전체' 리더보드 탭 아래 '순위' 섹션에서 스타일 제어를 해제한 결과가 사용됩니다.\n\n중국 기업에는 알리바바, 바이트댄스, 바이두, 문샷, Z.ai, 딥시크, 메이퇀, 샤오미, 스텝펀, 텐센트, 미니맥스 등이 포함되며 이에 국한되지 않습니다. 중국에 본사를 두지 않았거나 중국 기술 생태계 내에서 주로 소유·운영되지 않는 기업은 주요 중국 기업으로 간주되지 않습니다.\n\n모델은 시장 확인 시점의 리더보드 순위를 기준으로 주로 정렬됩니다. 두 개 이상의 모델이 순위가 동률일 경우, 리더보드 아래 데이터에 반영된 모든 기본 미반올림 세부 값을 포함한 아레나 점수로 정렬됩니다. 동률이 지속될 경우, 회사 이름의 알파벳 순서가 최종 타이브레이커로 사용됩니다. 이 시장은 이 순위 체계에서 중국 기업의 모델이 상위 3개 위치 중 하나를 차지할 경우에만 '예'로 해결됩니다.\n\n이 시장의 해결 출처는 https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control에 있는 Chatbot Arena LLM 리더보드입니다. 확인 시점에 이 해결 출처가 이용 불가능한 경우, 리더보드가 다시 온라인 상태가 될 때까지 시장은 열린 상태로 유지되며 이용 가능해진 후 첫 확인을 기준으로 해결됩니다. 영구적으로 이용 불가능해질 경우, 이 시장은 다른 해결 출처를 기준으로 해결됩니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","category":"ai","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.35,"noProbability":0.65,"change1h":-0.005,"change24h":0.13,"change1w":-0.015,"change1m":-0.205,"volume":36627.132367,"volume24h":1329.002607,"liquidity":2391.0639,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"31073898066092073901758862002915643899693247647436421266976536769150563530801","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T21:32:35.128612Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T21:45:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:00:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:15:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T22:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T23:45:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:00:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:15:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:30:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:45:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:00:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:15:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:30:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:45:26.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:00:14.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:15:22.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:45:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:00:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:15:07.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:45:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:00:25.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:15:07.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:30:24.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:45:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:00:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:15:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:30:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:45:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:00:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:15:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:45:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:00:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:15:09.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:30:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:45:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:00:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:15:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:45:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:00:15.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:15:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:30:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:45:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:00:09.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:15:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:30:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:45:08.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:00:28.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:15:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:30:11.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:45:13.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:00:28.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:15:09.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:30:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:45:12.000Z","probability":0.22},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:00:14.000Z","probability":0.32},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:15:09.000Z","probability":0.34},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:30:09.000Z","probability":0.365},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:45:13.000Z","probability":0.37},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:00:12.000Z","probability":0.37},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:15:13.000Z","probability":0.37},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:30:12.000Z","probability":0.37},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:45:08.000Z","probability":0.335},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:00:27.000Z","probability":0.335},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:15:09.000Z","probability":0.33},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:30:12.000Z","probability":0.33},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:45:12.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:00:13.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:15:08.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:30:13.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:45:08.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:00:12.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:15:09.000Z","probability":0.355},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:30:12.000Z","prob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31일까지 중국 기업이 상위 ___ AI 모델을 보유하게 될까?","optionLabel":"#3","slug":"will-a-chinese-company-have-one-of-the-top-3-ai-models-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","title":"12월 31일까지 중국 기업이 상위 3개 AI 모델 중 하나를 보유하게 될까?","originalTitle":"Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","category":"ai","tags":["Tech","AI","China","Airdrops","Big Tech","AI Rankings"],"status":"open","probability":0.35,"noProbability":0.65,"change1h":null,"change24h":0.13,"change1w":-0.015,"change1m":-0.205,"volume":36627.132367,"volume24h":1329.002607,"liquidity":2374.4139,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"31073898066092073901758862002915643899693247647436421266976536769150563530801","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T21:36:35.295946Z","translated":true},{"id":"1820798","eventId":"333737","eventTitle":"12월 31일까지 중국 기업이 상위 ___ AI 모델을 보유하게 될까?","optionLabel":"#1","slug":"will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","title":"12월 31일까지 중국 기업이 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까?","originalTitle":"Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","category":"ai","tags":["Tech","AI","China","Airdrops","Big Tech","AI 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