{"exportedAt":"2026-09-03T00:37:38.442Z","range":"1d","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"665484","eventId":"73200","eventTitle":"이스라엘과 터키의 군사적 충돌, 2027년 이전 발생?","optionLabel":null,"slug":"israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-by-MraP5uAn87e2.jpg","title":"2027년 이전 이스라엘과 터키의 군사적 충돌 발생 여부","originalTitle":"Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?","description":"이 시장은 2026년 12월 31일 오후 11시 59분(ET)까지 이스라엘과 터키 군대 사이에 군사적 조우가 발생할 경우 \"Yes\"로 판정됩니다. 그렇지 않을 경우 \"No\"로 판정됩니다.\n\n\"군사적 조우\"란 미사일 공격, 포격, 총격 교환 또는 이스라엘과 터키 군대 간의 기타 직접적인 군사적 교전 등 무력 사용을 수반하는 모든 사건을 의미합니다. 경고 사격, 무인 지역으로의 포격, 영해에 착탄하거나 영공을 통과하는 미사일 발사 등 비폭력적 행위는 \"Yes\" 판정 요건을 충족하지 않습니다. 군함이 다른 군함에 의해 의도적으로 충돌되어 선체에 구멍이 나는 등 중대한 손상이나 침몰이 발생할 경우 \"Yes\" 판정에 포함되지만, 긁힘이나 찌그러짐 같은 경미한 손상은 포함되지 않습니다.\n\n이 시장의 판정 출처는 신뢰할 수 있는 보도들의 합의입니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.135,"noProbability":0.865,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":null,"change1m":0.02,"volume":361684.024319,"volume24h":3191.122852,"liquidity":41803.1283,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"87453347574739433727741310300628833850540987232802276383336752817811816312350","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T00:32:34.97694Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:45:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:00:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:15:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:30:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T01:45:28.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:00:17.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:15:24.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:30:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T02:45:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:00:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:15:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:30:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T03:45:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:00:28.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:15:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:30:27.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T04:45:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:00:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:15:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:30:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T05:45:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:15:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:30:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T06:45:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:00:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:15:12.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:30:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T07:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:00:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:15:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:30:20.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T08:45:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:00:21.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:15:12.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:30:17.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T09:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:00:20.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:15:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:30:17.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T10:45:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:00:31.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:15:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:30:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T11:45:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:00:39.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:15:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:30:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T12:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:00:17.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:15:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:30:12.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T13:45:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:00:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:15:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:30:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T14:45:10.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:00:31.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:15:12.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:30:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T15:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:00:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:15:18.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:30:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T16:45:11.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:00:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:15:12.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:30:15.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T17:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:00:19.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:15:13.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:30:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T18:45:14.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:00:16.000Z","probability":0.135},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T19:15:27.00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터키의 군사적 충돌, 2027년 이전 발생?","optionLabel":null,"slug":"israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-by-MraP5uAn87e2.jpg","title":"이스라엘과 터키의 군사적 충돌, 2027년 이전 발생?","originalTitle":"Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Israel","Turkey","Middle East","Syria","Geopolitics"],"status":"open","probability":0.135,"noProbability":0.865,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":null,"change1m":0.02,"volume":361684.024319,"volume24h":3191.122852,"liquidity":44002.9383,"endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"87453347574739433727741310300628833850540987232802276383336752817811816312350","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-03T00:34:36.675317Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[]}}