{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T09:55:41.404Z","range":"1m","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"3399459","eventId":"711714","eventTitle":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"10월 31일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘-이란 휴전, 10월 31일까지 지속되나?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","description":"이 시장은 이스라엘과 이란 간 휴전 상태가 명시된 날짜인 10월 31일 오후 11시 59분(이란 표준시, IRST)까지 유지되는 경우 \"Yes\"로 결정됩니다. 그렇지 않으면 이 시장은 \"No\"로 결정됩니다.\n\n이스라엘 또는 이란이 시장 생성 시점부터 명시된 날짜인 오후 11시 59분(IRST)까지 상대국에 대해 적격 군사 행동을 취할 경우, 양국 간 휴전 상태는 더 이상 유지되지 않는 것으로 간주됩니다.\n\n적격 군사 행동이란 이스라엘 또는 이란이 개시하여 상대국에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 공습 또는 지상-지상 미사일 공격을 의미합니다. 공습에는 폭탄, 공대지 미사일, 공중 발사 드론이 포함됩니다. 지상-지상 미사일 공격에는 단방향 공격 드론과 순항 미사일 또는 탄도 미사일과 같은 지상-지상 미사일이 포함됩니다.\n\n다음 행동은 적격 군사 행동에 해당하지 않습니다:\n- 충돌 전 파괴되거나 요격된 탄약;\n- 지대공 미사일 공격;\n- 소화기 사격;\n- 지상 침투;\n- 사이버 작전;\n- 함포 사격 및 포병 사격;\n- 곡사포, 포병 장비, 박격포, 로켓 포병(예: MLRS 시스템);\n- 단거리 체공형 탄약, FPV 드론, 대전차 유도 미사일(ATGM) 공격을 포함한 소규모 지상-지상 공격;\n- 실행되지 않은 어떠한 위협, 승인, 또는 무력 사용 발표.\n\n충돌 전 요격되거나 파괴된 어떠한 탄약도 적격 군사 행동에 해당하지 않습니다. 요격된 탄약에서 발생한 잔해, 파편, 또는 어떤 잔해도 발생한 피해와 관계없이 이스라엘 또는 이란에 떨어지더라도 군사 행동으로 간주되지 않습니다.\n\n군사 행동이 이스라엘 또는 이란에 영향을 미치는 것으로 간주되려면 이스라엘 또는 이란의 영토, 내부 수역을 포함한 육지 영토에 직접적인 영향을 미쳐야 합니다. 영해와 영공은 포함되지 않습니다. 영토 경계가 분쟁 중인 경우, 시장 생성 시점 기준 관련 국가가 주장하고 사실상 통제하는 모든 영토가 해당됩니다.\n\n적격 군사 행동의 발생, 귀속, 시기는 주로 결정 출처의 이용 가능한 정보 합의에 기반하여 결정됩니다. 관련 군사 행동의 발생, 귀속, 시기에 관해 여러 출처가 상충하는 경우, 이 시장은 다음 중 더 이른 시점까지 열려 있습니다: i) 결정 출처의 이용 가능한 정보 합의에 기반하여 해당 행동의 발생, 귀속, 시기가 확인되는 시점, 또는 ii) 해당 행동에 대한 최초로 신뢰할 수 있는 증거가 보고된 날짜로부터 3일(IRST)의 전체 달력일. 이 기간이 종료일을 넘어갈 경우, 이 시장은 3일의 전체 달력일이 경과할 수 있도록 열려 있습니다. 3일째 되는 날 종료 시점에 행동에 관한 상충되는 보고가 남아 있는 경우, 이 시장은 그 시점에 결정 출처의 이용 가능한 정보의 총체에 기반하여 결정됩니다. 정보의 총체에 의해 반박되는 경우, 어떠한 단일 진술, 부인, 또는 증거 제시도 결정적이지 않습니다.\n\n이 시장의 결정 출처는 이스라엘과 이란 정부 및 군대의 공식 정보와 신뢰할 수 있는 보도입니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"society","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.685,"noProbability":0.315,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.07,"change1w":-0.12,"change1m":null,"volume":349003.3604349999,"volume24h":61765.46964999999,"liquidity":65254.8342,"endDate":"2026-10-31T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"36595575197199846398267481972385180643951985822505187477756829088194676076340","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:50:24.478718Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-08-07T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.485},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T00:00:18.000Z","probability":0.51},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.615},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T12:00:42.000Z","probability":0.61},{"timestamp":"2026-08-08T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.535},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T00:00:28.000Z","probability":0.58},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T06:00:22.000Z","probability":0.58},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T12:00:16.000Z","probability":0.62},{"timestamp":"2026-08-09T18:00:25.000Z","probability":0.565},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.57},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T06:00:11.000Z","probability":0.58},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T12:00:15.000Z","probability":0.58},{"timestamp":"2026-08-10T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.57},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.6},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.615},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T12:00:12.000Z","probability":0.685},{"timestamp":"2026-08-11T18:00:13.000Z","probability":0.66},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T00:00:16.000Z","probability":0.655},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T06:00:13.000Z","probability":0.66},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T12:00:24.000Z","probability":0.665},{"timestamp":"2026-08-12T18:00:19.000Z","probability":0.67},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.705},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.705},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T12:00:21.000Z","probability":0.705},{"timestamp":"2026-08-13T18:00:24.000Z","probability":0.75},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.72},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T06:00:19.000Z","probability":0.73},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T12:00:26.000Z","probability":0.73},{"timestamp":"2026-08-14T18:00:20.000Z","probability":0.73},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T00:00:20.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T06:00:15.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T12:00:21.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-15T18:00:16.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T00:00:22.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T06:00:17.000Z","probability":0.72},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T12:00:23.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-16T18:00:20.000Z","probability":0.725},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.755},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T06:00:17.000Z","probability":0.755},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T12:00:22.000Z","probability":0.755},{"timestamp":"2026-08-17T18:00:19.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T00:00:34.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T06:00:19.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T12:00:21.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-18T18:00:18.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T06:00:21.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T12:00:22.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T18:00:18.000Z","probability":0.74},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T00:00:27.000Z","probability":0.74},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T06:00:22.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T12:00:22.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T18:00:26.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T06:00:18.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T12:00:25.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T18:00:15.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T06:00:20.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T12:00:26.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T18:00:22.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T06:00:18.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T12:00:25.000Z","probability":0.735},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T18:00:17.000Z","probability":0.74},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T00:00:25.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T06:00:17.000Z","probability":0.745},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T12:00:22.000Z","probability":0.765},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T18:00:19.000Z","probability":0.835},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.815},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T06:00:25.000Z","probability":0.805},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T12:00:25.000Z","probability":0.805},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T18:00:23.000Z","probability":0.805},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T00:00:25.000Z","probability":0.805},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T06:00:22.000Z","proba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휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"8월 31일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-31-20260716224448970-754-896-823","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 8월 31일까지 지속될까요?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Iran","Israel","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Israel Election"],"status":"open","probability":0.9995,"noProbability":0.0005,"change1h":null,"change24h":null,"change1w":0.0175,"change1m":0.3145,"volume":3118947.208637001,"volume24h":14791.990000000002,"liquidity":164738.8323,"endDate":"2026-08-31T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"10451124928493844849355057703558222404087423201197729105477623039880661055484","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:50:24.478718Z","translated":true},{"id":"3399458","eventId":"711714","eventTitle":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"9월 30일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Iran","Israel","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Israel Election"],"status":"open","probability":0.815,"noProbability":0.185,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.04,"change1w":-0.065,"change1m":null,"volume":835467.070716,"volume24h":219977.96618499974,"liquidity":52686.3915,"endDate":"2026-09-30T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:48:23.034797Z","translated":true},{"id":"3399459","eventId":"711714","eventTitle":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"10월 31일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 10월 31일까지 지속될까요?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Iran","Israel","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Israel Election"],"status":"open","probability":0.685,"noProbability":0.315,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.07,"change1w":-0.12,"change1m":null,"volume":349003.3604349999,"volume24h":61765.46964999999,"liquidity":65254.8342,"endDate":"2026-10-31T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"36595575197199846398267481972385180643951985822505187477756829088194676076340","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:50:24.478718Z","translated":true},{"id":"3902370","eventId":"711714","eventTitle":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"11월 30일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 11월 30일까지 지속될까요?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Iran","Israel","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Israel Election"],"status":"open","probability":0.63,"noProbability":0.37,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.07,"change1w":null,"change1m":null,"volume":25543.652729,"volume24h":19887.782033000003,"liquidity":36240.725,"endDate":"2026-11-30T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"80480615864496054518534481664401458122946181878204882508499859562482914861231","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:50:24.478718Z","translated":true},{"id":"3399468","eventId":"711714","eventTitle":"이스라엘-이란 휴전이 9월 30일까지 지속되는가?","optionLabel":"12월 31일","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","title":"이스라엘과 이란 간 휴전이 12월 31일까지 지속되는가?","originalTitle":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","category":"politics","tags":["Iran","Israel","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Israel Election"],"status":"open","probability":0.595,"noProbability":0.405,"change1h":null,"change24h":-0.075,"change1w":-0.14,"change1m":null,"volume":290764.28610200004,"volume24h":44422.97995300001,"liquidity":71867.8028,"endDate":"2026-12-31T20:29:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T09:48:23.034797Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[{"marketId":"2952493","label":"8월 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