{"exportedAt":"2026-09-02T20:40:54.074Z","range":"max","source":"Polymarket public API via PolyView","market":{"id":"3701690","eventId":"449163","eventTitle":"이스라엘의 영공 폐쇄는...?","optionLabel":"9월 30일","slug":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","title":"이스라엘, 9월 30일까지 영공 폐쇄할까?","originalTitle":"Israel closes its airspace by September 30?","description":"이 시장은 이스라엘이 지정된 날짜(동부 표준시 기준 오후 11시 59분)까지 자국 영공의 주요 폐쇄를 개시할 경우 “Yes”로 판정됩니다. 그렇지 않을 경우 “No”로 판정됩니다.\n\n“주요 폐쇄”란 이스라엘 민간 영공 전체 또는 이스라엘 민간 영공의 대부분을 포괄하는 지역에 걸쳐 상업 항공 운항을 광범위하게 폐쇄, 취소 또는 완전히 중단하는 것을 의미하며, 해당 영공을 통과·입국·출발하는 상업 항공편도 포함됩니다. qualifying closure(판정 대상 폐쇄)는 이스라엘 전역 또는 qualifying subset(판정 대상 영공 일부)에 걸쳐 모든 항공편에 일반적으로 적용되어야 합니다. 제한된 취소, 지연, 일시적 지상 대기(ground stop) 또는 고립된 지역 폐쇄는 판정 대상이 되지 않습니다. 다만 광범위한 폐쇄에 대한 제한적 예외(예: 사전 승인된 특정 항공편에 대한 예외 허용)는 해당 폐쇄가 판정 대상에서 제외되는 사유가 되지 않습니다.\n\n이스라엘 이외의 항공사나 국가가 부과한 경고, 비행 금지 구역(No-Fly-Zone), 운항 중단 또는 기타 비행 제한은 “Yes” 판정에 충분하지 않습니다.\n\n기상 조건으로 인해 발생한 영공 폐쇄는 판정 대상이 되지 않습니다.\n\n이 시장의 주요 판정 출처는 이스라엘 항공 당국의 공식 정보이며, 신뢰할 수 있는 보도들의 합의도 함께 사용될 수 있습니다.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"science","tags":[],"status":"open","probability":0.095,"noProbability":0.905,"change1h":-0.01,"change24h":null,"change1w":0.03,"change1m":null,"volume":155289.41210700004,"volume24h":16239.104656,"liquidity":26141.1428,"endDate":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:38:35.651333Z","translated":true,"history":[{"timestamp":"2026-08-19T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.115},{"timestamp":"2026-08-20T00:00:24.000Z","probability":0.11},{"timestamp":"2026-08-21T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.095},{"timestamp":"2026-08-22T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.09},{"timestamp":"2026-08-23T00:00:19.000Z","probability":0.09},{"timestamp":"2026-08-24T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.095},{"timestamp":"2026-08-25T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.075},{"timestamp":"2026-08-26T00:00:22.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-27T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-28T00:00:22.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-08-29T00:00:23.000Z","probability":0.06},{"timestamp":"2026-08-30T00:00:22.000Z","probability":0.055},{"timestamp":"2026-08-31T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.085},{"timestamp":"2026-09-01T00:00:33.000Z","probability":0.065},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:00:21.000Z","probability":0.095},{"timestamp":"2026-09-02T20:39:21.000Z","probability":0.095}],"analysis":null,"news":[],"eventMarkets":[{"id":"3701690","eventId":"449163","eventTitle":"이스라엘의 영공 폐쇄는...?","optionLabel":"9월 30일","slug":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30","imageUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","title":"9월 30일까지 이스라엘이 영공을 폐쇄할 것인가?","originalTitle":"Israel closes its airspace by September 30?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","originalDescription":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"politics","tags":["Politics","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","Iran","Israel","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"],"status":"open","probability":0.095,"noProbability":0.905,"change1h":-0.01,"change24h":null,"change1w":0.03,"change1m":null,"volume":155289.41210700004,"volume24h":16239.104656,"liquidity":26141.1428,"endDate":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","outcome":null,"tokenId":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:38:35.651333Z","translated":true}],"eventHistory":[]}}